Chaos Rising launched on May 22, and by now collectors across the country have cracked open dozens of packs chasing Mega Greninja ex. But how good are the Chaos Rising pull rates really? Rather than going off gut feeling, TCGplayer's Authentication Center opened more than 8,500 booster packs before release and published precise data for every rarity tier. Here is the full picture, including what it means for your collection budget.
Chaos Rising rarity tiers at a glance
Like its Mega Evolution siblings Phantasmal Flames and Perfect Order, Chaos Rising is a compact set. That smaller card pool is a double-edged sword: it dilutes the rare tier less than a giant expansion, but the chase cards at the top are still rare enough to frustrate even the most dedicated openers. The five rarity tiers you can pull are:
- Double Rare: 1 in 5 packs
- Illustration Rare: 1 in 9 packs
- Ultra Rare: 1 in 12 packs
- Special Illustration Rare: 1 in 83 packs
- Mega Hyper Rare: 1 in 956 packs
Two quick notes before diving in. First, Double Rares and Illustration Rares land in different slots within each pack, so it is possible to hit both in the same opening. Second, all percentages below use a 95% confidence interval based on the sample size, so there is a small margin of error around each figure.
Double Rare pull rates: solid odds, predictable hits
Double Rares are the most frequent exciting pull in Chaos Rising, landing at a 20.30% rate across all packs. That is roughly one out of every five. The set contains 10 Double Rares in total, covering regular-version Pokemon ex and Mega Evolution Pokemon ex including Mega Floette ex and Cinccino ex.
If you are hunting a specific Double Rare, plan for around 49 packs on average. Completing all 10 requires roughly 144 packs. That is not painless, but compared to the brutal math at higher rarity tiers, Double Rares are genuinely reachable without spending a fortune.
| Target | Pull rate | Average packs needed |
|---|---|---|
| Any Double Rare | 20.30% | 1 in 5 |
| Specific Double Rare | 2.03% | 1 in 49 |
Illustration Rare: strong rates, beautiful cards
Illustration Rares in Chaos Rising appear at a 10.66% rate, which works out to roughly one every 9 packs. There are 11 IRs in the set, each a full-card alternate art version of a non-ex Pokemon. Froakie and Xerneas are among the highlights, and both have attracted serious collector attention.
Because IRs land in the second Reverse Holo slot rather than the main Rare slot, you can hit a Double Rare and an Illustration Rare in the same pack. That makes pack openings feel considerably more rewarding than in older sets where your rare slot was all or nothing. Targeting a specific IR takes roughly 103 packs on average, which is not trivial but still within reach of a few booster boxes.
Ultra Rare: full arts with punishing specific odds
Ultra Rares sit at 8.29% overall, about 1 in 12 packs. Chaos Rising packs 18 UltraRares across three groups: eight Full Art Pokemon ex or Mega Evolution Pokemon ex (including Beedrill ex), six Full Art Item or Stadium cards (including Special Red Card), and four Full Art Supporter cards (including Roxie's Performance).
The spread across 18 cards is what makes chasing specific URs expensive. Any given Ultra Rare comes up at just 0.46% per pack, meaning around 217 packs per copy. Completing the entire Ultra Rare portion of the set would take roughly 760 packs on average. For most collectors, singles are the rational path once you get past the base Double Rares.
| Target | Pull rate | Average packs needed |
|---|---|---|
| Any Ultra Rare | 8.29% | 1 in 12 |
| Specific Ultra Rare | 0.46% | 1 in 217 |
Special Illustration Rare: beautiful, rare, and expensive
Six Special Illustration Rares exist in Chaos Rising. Four feature full-card alternate art Pokemon ex or Mega Evolution Pokemon ex, with Mega Greninja ex SIR as the crown jewel. The remaining two are alternate-art Supporter cards, including AZ's Tranquility, which has proven surprisingly popular with fans of the X and Y era.
The overall SIR rate is 1.21% per pack, roughly 1 in 83. For any specific SIR, you are looking at 0.20% per pack, averaging around 496 packs. At a retail cost of roughly $5 to $6 per pack, the expected opening cost to find a specific SIR is somewhere between $2,400 and $3,000. Meanwhile the Mega Greninja ex SIR is trading at around $400 on the secondary market. The math overwhelmingly favors buying the single.
That said, if you are doing box openings for fun, you can realistically expect to pull at least one SIR per four to five booster boxes. It is a nice hit when it comes.
Mega Hyper Rare: Mega Greninja ex and the 1 in 956 lottery
There is one Mega Hyper Rare in Chaos Rising: Mega Greninja ex. It appears at a 0.10% pull rate, one copy per 956 packs on average. That works out to roughly one card per 26 or 27 standard 36-pack booster boxes.
Its current market price sits around $400 and is trending upward as supply dries up. TCGplayer's data suggests the MHR rate in Chaos Rising is marginally better than in Perfect Order and Phantasmal Flames, but the margin of error is wide enough that it may simply reflect sampling luck. In practice, treat the MHR as a lottery ticket: opening packs for it specifically is a losing bet financially. If you want the card for a binder or a frame, buy it outright.
How Chaos Rising compares to other Mega Evolution sets
Across all rarity tiers, Chaos Rising's pull rates track closely with Phantasmal Flames and Perfect Order. This consistency makes sense: all three sets are designed around the same Mega Evolution framework and target a similar product experience. The small set size keeps the overall completion cost lower than a flagship 200-plus card expansion.
Compare that to a set like Ascended Heroes, which has a much larger rare pool. In Ascended Heroes, pulling a specific Illustration Rare means competing against a far longer list of cards in the same slot. In Chaos Rising, the 11-card IR pool means each individual card comes up more frequently. If your goal is completing a set rather than chasing one specific whale, Chaos Rising is a genuinely satisfying product to collect.
The chase card narrative is also strong. Mega Greninja ex carries nostalgia for players who loved the Greninja Water Shuriken archetype, and its design in the MHR slot is widely considered one of the best chase cards in the Mega Evolution series so far. Demand is not going away.
Packs or singles: making the call that fits your goals
Here is a direct take based on the data. For anything below Special Illustration Rare, packs are a reasonable option if you enjoy the experience and budget for it as entertainment. Double Rares and Illustration Rares come up often enough that box openings feel rewarding, and you will naturally fill out common and uncommon slots along the way if you are building a master set.
For SIRs and the Mega Hyper Rare, singles win clearly on cost. If you want Mega Greninja ex MHR, buying it outright at market price costs a fraction of what you would spend statistically to pull one from packs.
Pack opening makes good sense when:
- You enjoy the process itself and treat packs as entertainment, not investment
- You are targeting multiple cards across Double Rare and Illustration Rare tiers
- You are building a full master set and need cards at every rarity level
- You want graded candidates and need raw cards with no handling history
Keep track of every Chaos Rising pull with Pokeman
Once the packs are open, tracking what you have pulled versus what you still need saves time and money. Pokeman lets you scan your Chaos Rising cards directly from your phone, pulls live market prices, and shows exactly which slots in your set are still empty. Instead of guessing whether another box is worth it, you can see at a glance what is missing and decide based on actual secondary market prices rather than hope.
It is free to download on the App Store. Start tracking your Chaos Rising collection at Pokeman on the App Store, and make every future pack decision an informed one.
Chaos Rising delivers strong pull rates at the lower tiers and genuinely attractive collector targets at the top. The data confirms it sits comfortably alongside Phantasmal Flames and Perfect Order in the Mega Evolution lineup. If you are opening packs for fun, this is one of the better small sets to crack. If you are chasing Mega Greninja ex specifically, skip the lottery and grab the single. Either way, knowing your odds puts you in control of the collection, not the other way around. Check our Chaos Rising buyer's guide for more on where to find the best deals on booster boxes and singles.
Frequently asked questions
The Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja ex appears in roughly 1 in 956 packs, based on a sample of over 8,500 packs opened by TCGplayer's Authentication Center. That translates to about one copy per 26 to 27 booster boxes.
Any Special Illustration Rare appears on average once every 83 packs. For a specific SIR like Mega Greninja ex, the average climbs to roughly 496 packs, making singles a smarter buy for most collectors.
Buying singles is almost always more cost-efficient for SIR and Mega Hyper Rare targets in Chaos Rising. Pack opening makes sense if you enjoy the experience itself or if you need a wide range of cards across multiple rarity tiers.
Chaos Rising pull rates are on par with both Phantasmal Flames and Perfect Order across all rarity tiers. As a smaller Mega Evolution set, it offers better odds of completing the full set than larger expansions like Ascended Heroes.
Illustration Rares appear at a rate of 10.66% per pack, roughly 1 in 9. They land in the second Reverse Holo slot, separate from the main rare slot, so pulling one does not reduce your chances of also hitting a Double Rare in the same pack.